Planning the forest transport systems based on the principles of sustainable development of territories

Abstract

The article identifies a new method of dynamic modeling in the design of the transport system in the forest fund (TSFF), which is based on economic and mathematical modeling and fuzzy logic tools. The combination of the indicated methods is designed to reduce the disadvantages of their use and increase the benefits. The article substantiates the choice of assessing the forecast level of the impact of risks on the activities of forestry enterprises (the method of expert assessments), using the methodological tools of fuzzy logic. The indicated method makes it possible to take into account a large variety of risk factors of the internal and external environment. At the same time, methodological aspects of fuzzy logic make it possible to formulate a quantitative assessment of qualitative indicators. The article substantiates the choice of tools for economic and mathematical modeling in order to state the design problem of the planned TSFF. Since the indicated method enables the formalization of the functioning of the timber transport system in the given conditions. The article presents a developed model that correctly takes into account the influence of risk factors when planning a TSFF, through the combination of fuzzy logic methods and economic and mathematical modeling. The advantages of the developed model include: considering the multivariance of material flows, vehicles, points of overload, etc.; automated processing of input parameters and effective data; using the model for forecasting, i.e. the possibility of deriving a fuzzy estimate of the efficiency of the timber transport system by identifying cause-effect relationships between the modeling object and the influence of risk factors on its functioning. © 2019 IOP Publishing Ltd.